The biggest moves in 2024 NFL free agency have been made. We found landings spots for Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Kirk Cousins, and others. All of them are fun and worthy of a full breakdown. Here's how I'm ranking all players after a bunch of movement.
Old ADP was right before free agency. New ADP is on March 14th in the midst of free agency. The 2022 and 2023 Finishes are using fantasy points over replacement per game.
Kirk Cousins completely sends all 2023 Falcons stats into the garbage can. The offense is brand new, featuring 91% and 95% 3-WR set rates if OC Zac Robinson keeps the Rams' blueprint. This will be a pass first unit with a complementary skill group. Drake London at X, Darnell Mooney at Z, and Rondale Moore in the slot maximizes their traits. London has 25-30% target share in his range of outcomes and his efficiency will skyrocket after being 40th out of 59 WRs in catchable ball rate last year. London is in the Round 3 mix next to Chris Olave. Don't forget about Kyle Pitts, though. He gets the QB, OC, and injury upgrade this offseason and has already demonstrated a rare downfield skillset, leading to more spike weeks. It's hard to be a "Better In Best Ball" TE, but Pitts is that. I moved him next to boom-bust king George Kittle. Both Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore will be selected after Cousins is, so treat them as stacking partners. Mooney is the 2nd biggest ADP mover in free agency, and rightfully so.... Oh, I moved Bijan Robinson to RB2 and 3rd overall. This is the perfect offense for bellcow usage, and the goal-line opportunities send him up a tier.
With Rondale Moore swapped out for Desmond Ridder, it's time to send Greg Dortch to the moon. He's penciled in as the slot receiver, and he's done some damage whenever he's on the field. Expect Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride to soak up a bunch of targets. The leftovers are going to Dortch instead of Michael Wilson in my opinion.
On the flip side, the Vikings take a big step back from Cousins to Sam Darnold (and potentially J.J. McCarthy). He played well in Carolina and in his Week 18 start last year because he's a decent athlete with a fun arm, who should feel way more stable away from the Jets. I trust Kevin O'Connell to fix Darnold's panicky feet to some degree, but it's still difficult to see Darnold being Cousins. He was the QB12 in EPA per play, QB10 in success rate, and QB6 in CPOE since 2022. Tough shoes. Justin Jefferson slides behind Ja'Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill for me, while I have much bigger concerns with Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Addison loses QB play and is likely to see fewer targets with Jefferson likely healthier. Hockenson is less likely to rush back now that the Vikings are building for the future, and I don't think his ADP reflects his knee injury enough. The Vikings also swapped in 30-year-old Aaron Jones to pair him with Ty Chandler. It should be Jones at the goal line but a committee between the 20s. Jones has a lot of tread on those productive tires at this point. Chandler is a point-and-shoot RB with elite athletic traits. He needs to develop more before being unlocked. That could happen by Week 17 if you're lucky.
Saquon Barkley should change our entire outlook on how the Eagles' have treated their RBs in recent seasons. Miles Sanders isn't a passing down back. D'Andre Swift can't convert short-yardage situations. Barkley can do both. Even though the Eagles haven't treated their RBs as bellcows recently, Barkley will be heavily involved, especially if the plan is to decrease the tush pushes at the goal line without Jason Kelce and after Jalen Hurts limped to the finish line last year. Former Rotoworlder Ian Hartitz pointed it out perfectly; Eagles RBs have been 1st in carries from 2-5 yards out but just 10th in carries from the actual goal line. I expect Barkley to convert more of those semi-goal line touches into touchdowns. He goes to the beginning of Round 2 in fantasy for me.
Josh Jacobs is one of the biggest winners of free agency. The Packers are a top-10 offense. The Raiders aren't. And Jacobs has no competition in the backfield currently. It's clear the Packers wanted a downhill piece in their offense after hitting gold multiple times at WR and TE last offseason, so Jacobs projects for an elite workload, including at the goal line. I'm expecting better efficiency this time around, too, after missing training camp via holdout in 2023. I don't think ADP will get to 16th overall where I have Jacobs ranked. That's cool with me. I want a ton of him, especially if the Packers add an OL in Round 1. ... The Raiders didn't want to lose Jacobs in free agency, and they haven't established a fill in yet. Zamir White is a tentative winner, though the Raiders are near the top of the list in odds to add at least one more RB in the draft. White needs a passing down complement and likely early-down competition. I do appreciate White's physicality. So does Antonio Pierce.
Zack Moss is the biggest winner, according to ADP movement. He's up 36 spots and counting after landing on the Bengals. His $4.5M contract isn't as high as others this offseason, but Cincy has kept the inefficient Joe Mixon heavily in the fantasy mix. In fact, Mixon was 21st and 35th overall in fantasy points over replacement per game in the most recent seasons. Moss, who was the RB5 in NextGenStats' rushing yards over expected metric, is a reliable player in all phases. I can't say that about Chase Brown, even if he's a rare athelte. Brown only had 5 pass protection snaps last year and largely produced on well-blocked screens. Those won't go away, but Moss comfortably projects for more touches and goal line opportunities. With Trayveon Williams also re-signed, the Bengals could be done at RB this offseason.
Derrick Henry to the Ravens is a total vibe. With a better OL and Lamar Jackson to put OLBs into blenders, watch Henry's efficiency numbers to fully rebound. If Gus Edwards could be the 52nd overall player last year, Henry has a chance to be an upside play in Round 3. The Big Dog was 23rd in fantasy points over replacement per game behind the worst OL in the league last year.
Joe Mixon is a great schematic fit with the Texans. His best years were in under center offenses, and Houston was 4th in under center runs last year. The Texans couldn't run the ball because of their OL injuries and Devin Singletary's average talent. Mixon has more juice and still provides the size to win in short-yardage situations. If Singletary can be 100th overall in fantasy points over replacement in C.J. Stroud's rookie season, Mixon should be an every-week RB2 with upside if the Texans OL can cooperate. He's the 59th overall player in my ranking.
Tony Pollard should be better a full season after breaking his leg. He also will be more explosive if he's not a bellcow like he was last season. Pollard should handle the goal line role, even if Tyjae Spears has a meaningful role in his second season. Spears' knee history and 201-pound frame likely keep him typecasted as a complement. Pollard just doesn't have the elite ceiling anymore in a much worse offense, so I'm keeping him at 74th overall. Spears falls to 109th next to other 1b types in middling units.
Aaron Jones still has some juice going into his age-30 season, but he can't be relied on to be a bellcow. Good thing Ty Chandler is still around! Both have speed. Jones just has vision and pass protection ability, while Chandler is a point-and-shoot RB who didn't get nearly as many zone runs as Alexander Mattison did last year. This is a 1a/1b rotation when both are healthy. Their fantasy value will depend on how much Kevin O'Connell can get out of Sam Darnold (and potentially J.J. McCarthy). I believe Darnold can be a top-24 QB in this offense, but O'Connell's offense last year with inconsistent QB play was dead last in RB fantasy usage. This is a downgrade for Jones, no question. He's 73rd overall for me.
D'Andre Swift to the Bears doesn't move the needle much for him. He's paid like a starter over multiple years, but Swift is an explosive back only. I question if he's better than Khalil Herbert as a pure rusher and if he's better in pass protection than Roschon Johnson. This feels like a 3-RB rotation in a likely mediocre offense, potentially capping the upside of all of them. Herbert and Roschon are the biggest fallers in ADP since free agency started. That checks out.
Gus Edwards is moving way up, too. The fit is perfect. He's familiar with OC Greg Roman and the Chargers new GM, too. He is a downhill rusher that Jim Harbaugh can fall in love with at the goal line. Unlike Moss on the Bengals, Gus Bus will have new competition coming. In fact, two moves are possible. Another running type like Blake Corum would make sense, as would a pure passing down option. Don't draft Edwards like he's the guy yet, but we can still be somewhat excited in half PPR.
Calvin Ridley was tasked with winning on outside releases near the sideline and down the field far too much for his size. He was thrown off his spot at times, especially against press coverage. Ridley shouldn't have that problem as the Z receiver next to DeAndre Hopkins. More middle-of-field routes and less hands at the line of scrimmage will allow for Ridley's route tempo to shine. His issue now becomes QB play. Going from Trevor Lawrence to the inconsistent accuracy of Will Levis has me concerned, especially with Hopkins showing signs of life last year. I have Ridley (71st overall) one tier ahead of Hopkins (84th), with Treylon Burks buried. Burks needs to dodge a slot receiver in the draft to be a full-time player. Expect him in the "Viska role" as a manufactured slot with a huge frame. Does that make you feel anything?
Gabe Davis slides into the "Calvin Ridley role" as the Jaguars' new X receiver. They both win downfield but get there in totally different ways. Davis wins with size, helping him also produce in the ground game and in 2-WR sets. He won't be a target hog because he's not an isolated route runner with speed, which is great news for the rest of the skill group. Christian Kirk is the WR1, even if he's a primary slot. He finished 34th overall in fantasy while playing this exact role two seasons ago, so he's a screaming buy. Zay Jones wins, too, simply because he wasn't fully replaced. He'll still need to dodge Brian Thomas Jr. or other top prospect in Round 1. Hell, even Evan Engram is a big winner after being manufactured touches last year when the offense didn't fully complement each other. It's frustrating that another Trevor Lawrence season is starting off on a weird foot.
32-year-old Keenan Allen was approached by the Chargers to join Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa as veterans taking a pay cut to remain on the team. Allen said no, thus triggering a trade to the Bears in exchange for a 4th rounder. Chicago is all in on surrounding Caleb Williams with talent from the jump, so much so that they traded one of their five picks to make this work. Allen is a walking first down and great fit with Caleb, who distributes passes to multiple receivers and takes pre-snap easy completions. The move hurts D.J. Moore's potential 2nd round fantasy value because Allen can still handle a 25% target share, but the Bears should be competent on offense and keep both in the WR2/WR3 mix. The Chargers offense is barren around Justin Herbert. Their offseason moves have been run-based, leaving Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston as the top targets. The $23M in cap savings puts Mike Williams back on their radar, and the 5th overall pick means they'll get first dibs on adding Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers.
Marquise Brown going to the Chiefs is an excellent fit for all parties. Kansas City gets the steal of WR offseason ($7M on a one year deal), while Brown gets to put up big numbers with the MVP before cashing in next offseason. Brown is the vertical threat from Z that this offense has missed. Think MVS but good. He has an injury history, but last year's tape was rock solid in an inconsistent environment. I'm curious just how much Brown's speed effects the entire offense after watching a very condensed team every since the Tyreek Hill trade. Last year, Rashee Rice was flushed with easy targets underneath because the rest of the group was so poor. I think Brown can compete with Rice in yards and touchdowns, even if Rice comfortably leads in receptions. Brown is just more athletic and versatile. I have the Chiefs all bunched together in the Round 4/5 range: Patrick Mahomes (43rd), Travis Kelce (45th), Isiah Pacheco (47th), Rice (49th), and Brown (65th). Chiefs stacks will be fun to navigate in best ball tournaments.
Diontae Johnson was traded for next to nothing, despite only being on a $10M deal. The Panthers bought low because Johnson's nifty route running and ability to play on the perimeter are skills their roster didn't have. Johnson's small frame and chaotic decision making prevent him from reaching a massive ceiling, but if Adam Thielen can be relevant, then we should expect Diontae to be. Bryce Young gets a play calling, WR, and OL upgrade this offseason. That's a start, and they have two 2nd round picks to find another WR in the draft. Size would be nice -- Adonai Mitchell, Keon Coleman, Xavier Legette, etc.
Russell Wilson isn't the same player, but he's also become a meme and the rhetoric has settled at an unfair level. Wilson's arm is still fantastic and his 2023 play speed was much better than it was two seasons ago. The Steelers getting him on a $1M prove it contract should keep Russ motivated. He wouldn't have signed so early if he wasn't guaranteed the starting job, so we can move on from Kenny Pickett. Expect Wilson to live in the play action world with OC Arthur Smith, and George Pickens is the obvious winner with the moves. Wilson loves Courtland Sutton down the field last year. Pickens does similar things with room to continue developing his non-go ball routes.
Justin Fields is trending towards backup land and at best will compete with Gardner Minshew types during training camp. The first sign was when Mac Jones was traded for just a 6th rounder. The final straw was Minshew signing his $15M guaranteed contract with the QB needy Raiders. The Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, and 49ers have openings at QB2 with dual-threat starters, but if that's the result, then Fields goes from top 75 fantasy pick to the undrafted zone. For as much as I understand why the NFL has reached this conclusion, it's still a painful decline in terms of fun and theoretical upside for us.
Tee Higgins demanded a trade, but the Bengals hold the leverage with that pesky franchise tag. Higgins can't hold out without permanently losing $1M per game, and the Bengals would rather keep Higgins in the peak of their Super Bowl winder rather than sending him off for a 2nd- or 3rd-rounder. Will a team step up for a 1st rounder? It's possible, but even then, the stubborn Bengals could keep him and wait for the compensatory pick next season. I don't think we should move Higgins down much, if at all, in fantasy football rankings. He's 42nd overall for me after finishing 62nd and 37th overall in fantasy points over replacement per game.
Jerry Jeudy being traded for just a 5th and 6th round pick makes sense because he's a limited player. His size hurts him at the catch point, and he oversells routes at times (though I think that's not as big of a deal now). All that said, Jeudy is still a quality athlete and slides into the vertical slot role. Hopefully his mentor Amari Cooper can help clean up Jeudy's game and get him motivated in a contract year. Jeudy is a better player than Elijah Moore in my opinion.
The Bills signing Curtis Samuel to an $8M per year contract is a nice value. His fit is a little weird, however. He only ran 6 routes in 2-WR sets last year as the Commanders slot-only receiver. That was also the role he played in 2020 when OC Joe Brady was around the Panthers (career low 21% outside rate and career high 41 rush attempts). Even though Samuel has played some outside throughout his career, it's not his best spot on the field in my or Brady's opinion. The same can be said with Khalil Shakir, who is 190 pounds with 10 career receptions while lined up outside. The Bills signed Mack Hollins to replace Gabe Davis, but that's simply not good enough. I'm worried that Stefon Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and James Cook have too much skillset overlap. Where is the big outside presence? Maybe that comes in the draft.
My favorite late round TEs are Noah Fant, Hunter Henry, and Colby Parkinson. Fant has the size, speed, college production, cap hit, and highlight tape of a late-career breakout, especially in the Seahawks' vertical pass game offense. He's still one of the highest-projected TEs in my prospect model all time. His running mate, Parkinson, also had the college production and now the contract to join the late-breakout party. He'll compete with Davis Allen and Tyler Higbee in Los Angeles, but the 3 year, $15M guaranteed contract makes him the favorite for heavy snaps. That's a nice role with McVay opting for 1-TE sets again. Henry re-signing with the Patriots makes him the boring mid-range TE2 in the last round of drafts for about the 3rd year in a row. He's a constant single in a range of strikeouts.
Jonnu Smith to the Dolphins is a nice spot for his unique skillset. Ditto for Mike Gesicki on the Bengals. Hell, even Zach Ertz to the Commanders isn't bad given their lack of depth and Will Dissly will block his ass off for Harbaugh/Roman. I understand all of the TE free agency fits, but the TEs in this paragraph just aren't as good as the ones listed in the previous blurb in my opinion.
